There has never been a conclave that ended on the first ballot, but there have been many that dragged on for years, so it's strange to me how 1 ballot has such high odds. The Tagle/Parolin supporters will see who is in the lead, and then throw their weight behind the other, so it's probably either 2 or a large number.

I think this election has higher stakes than most - given that the Cardinals have a supermajority left wing and the world is moving hard right. The impact on world politics could be significant and surely the electors know that.

I'm surprised how people are discounting the large numbers here.

@SteveSokolowski what's your evidence that the "world is moving hard right"?

@dlin007 My policy is not to perform Internet research for other users on any platform. I'll direct you to perform your own searches and use models to answer your question - thanks.