Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?
Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?
Plus
13
Ṁ12562030
15%
Bernard Arnault
29%
Elon Musk
22%
Jeff Bezos
10%
Larry Ellison
5%
Warren Buffett
(Forbes used as source for this shortlist)
"Players" are eliminated if, after market creation 23 Feb 2024, they:
die
cease being a billionaire (no, becoming a trillionaire doesn't count)
become wheelchair-bound
or publicly fall down (must fall such that they are no longer supported by either foot, video proof required)
Last player standing wins and resolves YES. Others resolve NO as they are eliminated.
Close date may change as necessary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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opened a Ṁ75 NO at 25% order1y
I put in small limits at 15 and 25 for each to add some counterparty for y'all
@duck_master go wild. I would have done a sum-to-one market but I wanna be able to resolve NOs as they go
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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