Will I manage to achieve a sub-45 min 10k before @diadematus and 2026?
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7
Ṁ4231
Dec 31
65%
chance

This market is inspired by @diadematus market aiming for a sub-45 10k:

Resolution criteria:

I will need to register a 10k GPS tracked run with a start and stop of tracking with less than 45 minutes between (so none of the "moving time" bullshit that Strava offers).

If this run occurs before a point when @diadematus manages to achieve a sub-45 min 10k run and before December 31st 2025, this market will resolve to YES.

Anything else will cause resolving to NO.

I will only buy YES positions in this market.

I am not allowed to divest from bought YES holdings.

PB: 51m30s, Aug 2023

Most recent 10k: 51m52s, Aug 2024


Since I currently have a case of shin splints and not doing regular runs you can follow my progress on the rowing machine here:
https://log.concept2.com/profile/2645665

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To reduce the amount of insider information I keep to myself I've signed up for a Concept2 account and will be logging my rowing workouts there while the runs aren't happening
https://log.concept2.com/profile/2645665

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 65% order

Current form on the rowing machine. With my case of shin splints I've had to stop with running for cardio currently. Doing rowing machine and spinning to keep up

@Tarl i'm clearly way off track, but i would say you're quite far off (Imho)...what happens if both of us don't get there this year? since this market has only 3 traders i propose extending the deadline to like March 2026 and changing the resolution rules to allow for resolving whoever got closest). i'm fine with agreeing to n/a it as well although that will be unsatisfying

I plan on resolving this as it is written. Had to take it easy on the running recently because of shin splints but I've kept up with the cardio. I still feel confident in making a sub-45 10k before the end of the year

If you think I'm far off, bet against me 😉

@Tarl i'm not sure what to bet if my bet is "both of us won't do it by 1st Jan 2026"

@diadematus my market would resolve no, I guess I could make it clearer with failure to do the time by market close results in a NO

bought Ṁ310 NO from 84% to 64%
bought Ṁ310 NO

@Tarl lemme collect a little mana then ;)

@Tarl regardless, I am going to recommit myself to my goal and give it one last shot at consistency for like 8 weeks, before i give up. so this market is an easy NO

My bout of shin splints seems to be letting off. Got an ok pace in

bought Ṁ50 YES

Finding the pace. Quite tough put possible

bought Ṁ100 YES

Back down to a decent pace, now there's just cutting another 40 seconds per kilometer

@Tarl i did a 5k time trial-ish at almost the exact day and i'm not far off

bought Ṁ100 YES

First run in a while: 5k in 30 min

@diadematus seem to have injured or damaged one knee. Having some pain while putting weight on it. Will probably abstain from any real running until I've had at least ~2 weeks of the pain disappearing. Time to load up on the "No" position

bought Ṁ30 NO

@Tarl great news for me since i'm more focused and consistent than ever meanwhile ;).

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 48% order

progress last week @tarl? i traveled to a high altitude place in my country and still did a very enjoyable 21k...starting to feel very good about my consistency

@diadematus Nothing new. Currently getting ready for a move so will probably be bad with consistency for two weeks.

Today: 5k on treadmill, 25m51s

@Tarl how fast is that for you? that is close to my PB!

@diadematus for current form it's good. Looking back through my Strava I can see that I did a 5k in 24m41s in August last year so should hopefully be back at that pace in a couple of weeks

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