I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. Let's see if you can guess who it is!
CURRENT PRIZE VALUE: Ṁ300
Rules (WILDCARD- Suspicion):
At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, the closing time will be extended for another week.
Each user can ask one yes/no question in the comments every 8 hours, and I will try to answer in a timely manner. The answers I give will be limited to "yes," "no," and "unknown."
If your question does not follow the parameters I've set, or if it has too much gray area/a simple "yes" or "no" would be misleading, I will reply with "rephrase" and a brief snippet on what needs to be clarified. You do not need to wait 8 hours to rephrase your question.
Upon receipt of the question (and clarification, if needed), I will roll a d4. If it lands on 1, I will lie; otherwise, I will tell the truth. Therefore, expect that approximately 25% of my answers will be false.
I may refuse to answer meta questions ("has the person already been added to this market," "does the person’s name have X number of letters," etc.) at my discretion.
If you have a guess for who I'm thinking of, add your answer to the market. (I will not answer point-blank questions along the lines of "is it this specific person.") You may add as many answers as you like; initial liquidity is low to facilitate addition of answers.
The user who adds the correct answer will receive a prize upon resolution of the market. The prize starts at Ṁ500 and decreases by Ṁ100 each time the market closing time is extended, with a minimum prize value of Ṁ100.
I will not bet in this market.
Check out the WAITO dashboard for other ongoing and past iterations of this kind of market, including a list of the answers to my previous rounds.
Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Published books are counted as "media" when the creator answers questions about whether the person has appeared in media.
1,000
3.00@traders The correct answer has not yet been added to the market; close time has been extended by one week, and the prize is now Ṁ300.
As a hint, though statistically the market should trend toward a 25% lie rate over time, 20% of my answers thus far have been lies...
...which is somewhat deceptive, since the first 10 answers had a 40% lie rate and the subsequent 50 had a 16% lie rate.
