In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims:

In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.

Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that:

• Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute.

  • or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism

• GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2.

  • I will use my best judgement if mostly the same benchmarks are reported.

• "A minute" and "a day" refer to wall-clock times.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

• Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?31%‌

• $100B AI training cluster before 2029?82%‌

• $1T AI training cluster before 2031?65%‌

• Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?14%‌

• Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?40%‌

• Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?39%‌

• "Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?33%‌

• 1GW AI training run before 2027?64%‌

• 10GW AI training run before 2029?43%‌

• 100GW AI training run before 2031?37%‌

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

• Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?72%‌