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Resolution Criteria
This market asks for predictions on how many years from January 1, 2025, it will take for the EU to federalise. The market will resolve to the number of years (rounded to the nearest year) between January 1, 2025, and the date when the EU officially becomes a federation.
For resolution purposes, "federalisation" will be defined as:
The formal adoption and implementation of a constitutional document explicitly establishing the EU as a federation
The creation of a clear federal structure with defined powers distributed between the federal level and member states
Recognition by international bodies and member states of the EU's status as a federation
If the EU has not federalised by January 1, 2075 (50 years from the start date), the market will resolve to 50+.
If the EU dissolves or fundamentally transforms into something other than a federation before federalising, the market will resolve to 50+.
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3.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00