This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about the Libertarian Party's bid to their previous election results (and some other previous third party bids)
Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election according to Dave Leip's numbers - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to Dave Leip's numbers (e.g. in that case 1,865,926/158,594,895)
Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.
1,000
3.00The LP is going to do much worse than usual because they have to compete with RFK. He's the one who will be getting all the, "I don't like the other two candidates," votes, which is the LP's main base of support. Even party members are predicting that they will get less than half a percent: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/26/libertarians-reject-trump-rfk-chase-oliver-presidential-nominee-00160040
@thepurplebull if they got 50 last time.. and the RFK movement is much bigger.... how is this market so low?
https://manifold.markets/GavenWolfgang/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-achieve-ba