it's here!

Fuck I guess this is going to resolve yes.

Seems like the views per day has been quite high, we may actually hit it before 2024

bet on that here! https://manifold.markets/blackle/will-rational-animations-video-the-4183b516a4b8?r=YmxhY2tsZQ

Will Rational Animations video 'The Goddess of Everything Else' hit 1 million views before 2024?

50% chance. Same as this market, but ending on new years 2024 instead of 2025: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-rational-animations-video-the-477f5fbe68f7?r=YmxhY2tsZQ

I have youtube blocked on my PC so I don't get distracted, can someone tell me how many views it has at the moment?

@JustifieduseofFallibilism 678,659

I don't think linear extrapolation is correct here, because the growth rate of the views is decreasing exponentially. SocialCounts[1] has data since 2023-07-21 and fitting an exponential decay on the view count change estimates that the views will stop growing at about 520k.

[1]: https://socialcounts.org/youtube-video-live-view-count/Bbwp4PbWYzw

@AndriSoone That’s too conservative though.

@AndriSoone nice analysis! I agree with @ShadowyZephyr that this is too conservative, though. Another point of reference could be their other videos. According to the wayback machine, this one had fewer views after 1 month than our video, but is very close to 1 million after just 9 months, and for this market we have a whole year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVrUNuADkHI

https://web.archive.org/web/20221118154734/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVrUNuADkHI

How to Take Over the Universe (in Three Easy Steps)

In this tutorial, we will teach you how to take over the universe in three easy steps. We will use amounts of energy and resources that are small compared to...

@AndriSoone Do you mind sharing the formula of the "Extrapolated views" column?

@Nick332 "Extrapolated views" is just a sum of "Extrapolated change", which is =GROWTH($D$11:$D$38,$B$11:$B$38,B3:B539,TRUE) in the F3 cell. Here's the spreadsheet with up-to-date data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V5A_oFcyw5fHfdU7nOcD2H8PugioAtoEf5XP5HPeOug/edit#gid=0

It doesn't look like it's decreasing exponentially anymore and seems to have stabled at around 8k new views per day.

Goddess of everything else video views

Sheet1 Date,Day,Views,Change,Extrapolated views,Extrapolated change,Extrapolated views (logarithmic),Extrapolated change (logarithmic),Sum of y = 30000 × 0.95^x + 500,y = 30000 × 0.95^x + 500,Sum of y = -6000ln(x) + 30000,y = -6000ln(x) + 30000 13/07/2023,0,0,0,0.0 14/07/2023,1,19863.7,19863.7,4...

@blackle seems we're still exceeding the growth of the "how to take over the universe" video. two months after it came out it had ~560,000 views, whereas we now have ~670,000. a little under a year after its release this video has gotten 990,000 views. so I predict that goddess of everything else will hit 1M in June 2024 at the latest

double post, oops

Pretty confident this will happen, possibly even before 2023, if we extrapolate linearly. It's not totally accurate to project this linearly, but the trend is so strong I feel ok about it.

@blackle