Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more than $1 Billion worldwide?
Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more than $1 Billion worldwide?
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63%
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On March 10th ("Mar10 day"), 2024, Nintendo announced a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023), with a planned release date of April 3rd, 2026: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2024/240310.html
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) had a take of $1,361,972,248 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo at the time of market creation: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If, by the end of the initial run of the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie, it has not grossed more than $1,000,000,000 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more worldwide than the first film according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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