Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?
Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?
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This question will resolve to Yes if, before January 1, 2040, any sovereign state in the world officially adopts a new or amended constitution that contains text that is partially or fully generated by an artificial intelligence system.
The source and method of the AI generation must be verifiable and publicly disclosed by the adopting state. The adoption of the constitution must be done through a valid and recognized process of ratification and enactment, according to the state's own constitutional rules and international law.
This question will resolve to No if no such event occurs before January 1, 2040.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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How would this resolve if the state resolves a constitution after a revolution, rather than following preceding constitutional process. Say the state, the successor government, gains international recognition.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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