Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2031? | Manifold

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2031?

Plus

15

Ṁ560

2031

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the following resolution criteria:
- "Natural" extinction of SARS-CoV-2 (without human agency) would resolve the market to YES.
- If a successor variant completely displaces the original strain, the market will resolve to NO.
- An exception may be made to resolve YES in a scenario where a chimera virus involving SARS-CoV-2 exists, but the original strain is gone.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The word "eradicated" suggests agency? Do you mean it that way? Or does being superceded by a variant that is no longer called by that precise name count?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I hadn't thought about "natural" extinction when I wrote this question but expect I'd resolve YES in that case.

As for a successor variant completely displacing the original strain: resolves NO. Though maybe I'd resolve YES in extenuating circumstances like "a chimera of SARS-CoV-2 and something else still exists but the original doesn't".

Related questions

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?

Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?

Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

Will HIV be eradicated in humans before 2030?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?

Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

Related questions

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?

Will HIV be eradicated in humans before 2030?

Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?

[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules