Who will be the next person to land on the moon?
Who will be the next person to land on the moon?
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11
Ṁ7632030
16%
Stephanie Wilson
15%
Nicole A. Mann
12%
Anne McClain
10%
Jasmin Moghbeli
7%
Jessica Wittner
7%
6%
Jessica Watkins
5%
Nichole Ayers
4%
Kayla Barron
3%
Zhai Zhigang
1%
Liu Yang
1%
Jeffery Bezos
1%
Wang Yaping
1%
Elon Musk
1%
Frank Rubio
1%
Scott Tingle
1%
Raja Chari
1%
Christina H. Koch
1%
Jessica Meir
Resolves to the next person who steps foot on the moon. If there is a group that all step foot at the same time I will resolve to multiple. If there is a dispute I will resolve based on the spirit of the market, or maybe N/A if needed.
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Given how high this is: https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-china-land-people-on-the-moon
Other seemed undervalued at 0.7%, so I bought it up a bit.
According to NASA planning it would be Artemis 3 in 2025 but the crew is not announced yet. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3
@MaxPayne the team is known. So likely one of these 18 people: https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/12/09/nasa-names-18-astronauts-for-artemis-moon-missions/
@JoshuaWilkes Joe Acaba looks to be as experienced, but I didn't realize NASA just came out and said the quiet part loud this time :)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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