To be resolved by the consensus of American sources. I may choose to resolve to Market if there is some ambiguity and the market price seems basically reasonable and not manipulated or an artifact of poor liquidity, but if not, or if it seems pretty clear cut to me, then I'll resolve to my own best judgement of the consensus of trustworthy American sources, including both government sources and news media.
I will probably continue to delay the closing of this market until some consensus emerges and either way will probably wait several months at the minimum unless the evidence is especially clear cut.
I will presumptively treat evidence of being the cause of the dam failure as evidence of deliberate intent to make it fail.
See also:
1,000
3.00If you want to bet on whether the Russians intended to completely destroy the dam, as opposed to whether it might have been a lesser sabotage operation gone wrong, see the following market.
If you believe it was the Russians but by mismanagement rather than deliberate sabotage, you can’t make money on this market (because this one would resolve N/A in that case) so go to the following market instead.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00