On 10/7, Hamas attacked Israel, Israel went on a counteroffensive. Will there be large-scale riots in mixed cities within Israel (excluding West Bank) as a result?
Notes:
"Large scale" = comparable to the 2021 riots in Lod, Ramla, etc, as judged by me based on Israeli news publications.
Citizens - if there are riots in an Arab village and Israeli police confronts the rioters, is not sufficient for resolving YES. I am interested in civil-war-like events. Non-police Jews going to an Arab village to cause chaos does count, will depend on severity.
As a result - I will be very liberal in my interpretation. If riots happen during Israeli operation in Gaza (including aerial bombings), will resolve YES. If riots happen very shortly after a ceasefire but I still think it's due to the war, will resolve YES (if happens within a ~week of a ceasefire, I will probably attribute it to the war).
The market will remain open as long as the war continues. Will resolve NO after the war ends and a sufficient time has passed for me to be sure that if riots will happen, won't be related to the war.
I will not bet on this market. Since resolution is somewhat subjective, I am willing to be persuaded by discussion in the comments. If something is unclear, ask away.
1,000
3.00The war has gone on for a long time, and it doesn't seem like there will be riots. However, the criteria say that I will extend until the war is officially over. This is what I'll do, but there's a premium to getting people their mana quickly. So: are any of the YES holders feel like they will be wronged by resolving the market now? I will wait 2 days (until 09/04) for feedback before deciding whether to resolve or extend resolution date.