When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?
When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?
Plus
11
Ṁ7342037
6%
2024
11%
2025
14%
2026
13%
2027
8%
2028
6%
2029
5%
2030
4%
2031
5%
2032
27%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Are we only counting public stakes? coz for all we know there might be some trillionaires already.
@ftkurt or I can sell one out of 1b private stocks of my crappy company to my friend for 1k USD, and now my company will be valued at 1t.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will Elon Musk be the first trillionare ?
27% chance
Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?
26% chance
When will there be a 'Half Trillionaire'?
Who will be the first trillionaire?
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?
Who will be the first trillionaire?
Who will be the first half-trillionaire?
Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?
71% chance