Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?
Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?
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Many argue that if a company developed an AGI, they would have good reason to keep it a secret.
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assuming major agi progress means specifically 'something significantly more powerful than curent techniques, in a way that is like AGI' as opposed to 'google / baidu / a trading firm has a secret transformer model that is 30% better on some benchmarks that they didn't tell anyone about'
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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