Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?
Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?
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As proposed by Patrick McKenzie (https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1575472752298930176), this resolves to YES if either far-UVC or other similar technology has a similar prevalence to smoke-free air, or is otherwise a legal requirement for commercial spaces in places 75% or more of Americans live, in the United States by 1 January 2033.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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