Resolves to YES if Google enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Google announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Google releases Gemini 2 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
(If Google has made this commitment already and I missed it, bet it to 99%, post your link and claim your prize now and I thank you for the cheap info.)
1,000
3.00I can't find anything indicating Google made any similar commitment in the last year, and there's no mention of AISI in the Gemini 2.0 or Gemini 2.5 model cards.
AISI seems to have been gutted by the DOGE layoffs, the director has left, and the executive order establishing it in the first place has been repealed. It seems likely to me this will resolve NO.