By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
Plus
10
Ṁ1052030
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Since title has char limits, here's the full question:
By 2030, will a major intelligence agency publicly acknowledge the use of AI-based steganographic techniques in a successful operation?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
15% chance
By 2026, will a popular video game company announce the use of AI-based steganography to hide Easter eggs?
40% chance
Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]
56% chance
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
30% chance
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
69% chance
Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?
14% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
5% chance
Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)
6% chance
Will the US government adopt a mandatory labeling system for AI-generated content by 2025?
25% chance