Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?
Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?
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I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
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You should probably specify in the US. I don’t think many other countries consider abortion a contentious issue
@thepurplebull They mean most industrialized countries. Most of Africa and South America don't but almost everywhere else it's legal. Hell even Italy and Ireland, two predominantly Christian countries now allow it.
@thepurplebull Sorry for the huge delay replying here. From the data I’ve seen, most countries agree on their abortion laws.
The US remains contentious because the structure of the states/system allows for the minority opinion to make political progress. Even in the US, most people agree on abortion
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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