Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, at least one resolution source indicates that the Russian Federation or its armed forces control at least 90% (i.e. 47,880km²) of the Donbass region and no other resolution source contradicts this assessment.
This market will resolve 50% if, at the close date, at least one resolution source indicates that the Russian Federation or its armed forces control at least 90% of the Donbass region and at least one other resolution source contradicts this assessment.
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Resolution sources
The resolution sources are:
Close date
This market is set to close at 21:00:00 UTC on 31 December 2025.
Clarifications
For the purpose of this market, the ‘Donbass region’ comprises Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast in their entirety. The region has a total area of 53,200 square kilometres.
In determining whether a resolution source indicates or contradicts something, I may consider the recency of its last update.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Handling "Ukraine controls X%" estimates:
If a resolution source reports Ukraine's control as a percentage instead of Russia's control, it will still be considered
The calculation must account for grey zone territory (currently ~400-450 km²) not controlled by either side
Russian control = Total area - Ukrainian control - Grey zone
Qualifiers like "about" or "at least" will be factored into the assessment
Example: If Reuters reports Ukraine controls "at least 5,000 km²" with ~400 km² grey zone, Russia would control at most 47,800 km² (below the 47,880 km² threshold needed for YES)
1,000
3.00I feel I should pre-emptively answer a question that might come up here:
If Reuters or ISW phrases its estimate as "Ukraine controls x%" instead of "Russia controls y%", will it still be considered in the resolution of this market?
The answer is yes, but with a significant (and, I think, reasonable) caveat. While hostilities continue, determining the size of the area controlled by Russia is not as simple as subtracting the area controlled by Ukraine from the total area of the region. A small portion of the region, currently about 400-450 square km, is 'grey zone' not controlled by either side.
Recent reports from Reuters claim that Ukraine controls "about" or "at least" 5,000 square km of Donbass. If I had to resolve the market right now, I would factor in the ~400 square km of grey zone, which leaves Russia with, at most, 47,800 square km of Donbass – just short of the threshold of 47,880 square km. With that in mind, I wouldn't possibly be able to put Reuters in the YES column, especially when the estimate of the area controlled by Ukraine is prefaced by "at least". (Again, that is if the market closed today. If Reuters reports on 31 December that Ukraine controls "about 8% of Donbass" it will almost certainly be in the YES column.)
@questionyourself Donbass, which means Donetsk Oblast + Luhansk Oblast for the purpose of this market
@a_l_e_x seems very unlikely DeepState will update to 90% at the current rate, market resolving to 50% seems like the best case scenario for YES holders
Most recent estimates as we near the end of October:
Reuters says Ukraine controls ~10% of Donbass (or ~5,000km², which is closer to 9%)
Creamy_caprice has Russia at 89.0% control of Donbass
Using the ruler tool on DeepState, I get ~88% of Donbass controlled by Russia
For anyone interested, previous estimates by source:
ISW
~82.5% – 30 November 2024
~84.5% – 18 December 2024
Creamy_caprice
83.8% – 24 January 2025
84.3% – 26 February 2025
84.6% – 26 March 2025
85.0% – 23 April 2025
85.7% – 25 May 2025
86.6% – 29 June 2025
87.1% – 27 July 2025
Reuters
~79% – 17 September 2024
~80% – 2 October 2024
~88% – 15 August 2025
DeepState (using ruler tool)
~87% – 18 August 2025