Background

In November 2024, Russia negotiated the return of 46 civilians captured by Ukraine from Kursk Oblast. 33 more were returned in March 2025, and another 20 were returned on 23 May 2025 as part of a larger prisoner swap. Russia believes that 34 of its citizens are still being held hostage in Sumy.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before 21:00:00 UTC on 31 December 2025, a Russian official confirms that Ukraine has facilitated the return of at least one captured Russian civilian to Kursk Oblast, excluding any return of civilians that was announced before this market was created at 19:00:00 UTC on 24 May 2025.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Resolution principles

• It will be presumed that the event in question has not occurred unless it is proven to have occurred.

• In the event that the resolution of the market is subjective or contentious, traders will be properly consulted.

Interpretation principles

• The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.

• No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.

Further information

I will not bet in this market.