US Real (Inflation-adjusted) GDP has increased at an average rate of 3.2% per year since 1929. But some people are talking about AI dramatically accelerating GDP growth.
This resolves Yes if the Real GDP for Q4 2026 is at least 21.55% higher than Q4 2022 (an annualized rate of 5%), according to this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
The median Federal Reserve economic projection is currently 0.4% real GDP growth for 2023, 1.2% for 2024, and 1.9% for 2025.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1MD
And 5% average Real Growth over a 4 year period has not happened since 1984:
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023 and 2024?NO
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?2%
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?8%
May 2, 6:42pm: Will US Real GDP Growth rate average at least 5% for 2023-2026? → Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?
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3.00What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00