1,000
3.00as the creator is absent, @Gabrielle is taking ownership of this market. pinning this comment to alert any new traders.
Hey everyone, thanks for waiting for a mod to weigh in here. Coming in to markets like this and clarifying them before they close isn't something we do often, especially on markets as subjective as this one, but I'll do my best to make it fair and try to resolve in an objective way.
I'm first going to go over the various potential ways that the Supreme Court has been ignored by a sitting US president:
In Noem v. Abrego Garcia, the Court mandated that Trump "facilitate" the return of Garcia to the United States. While Trump has clearly not cared much about the order, legal scholars seem to agree that the wording of "facilitate" is weak enough that it does not actually require the administration to do anything that it has not. This is certainly a complicated case, and the most compelling one, but I think the bar is not yet met on this case. Most notably, no judge has yet ruled that the administration is ignoring the Court or found Trump or administration officials in contempt. At this point, Judge Xinis has criticized the administration's actions and stated that they were insufficient for the Court's ruling, but declined to hold contempt.
In TikTok v. Garland, the Court ruled that the "TikTok ban" (the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act) was legal. However, it did not rule that the law had to immediately come into effect. At this point, the Trump's administration has only delayed enforcement of the law, which the Court did not rule about.
Joe Biden stated that the Supreme Court "didn't stop" him on student loans. While Biden did forgive some student loans, many other loan forgiveness plans were prevented by the Court, and all rulings on the issue were followed by the Biden administration.
Trump has ignored rulings by lower courts, but this market is specifically about the Supreme Court.
Ultimately the market requires some amount of subjective analysis, but I'm not going to resolve the market as YES yet. I'm specifically looking for a case where Trump or administration officials are held in contempt by a judge for ignoring a Supreme Court ruling, or where the actions are extremely blatant.
Speaking only personally, my judgment of this market would be near the current probability, and I certainly wouldn't say that this market is unlikely to resolve YES.
as the creator is absent, @Gabrielle is taking ownership of this market. pinning this comment to alert any new traders.
@shankypanky Thanks for posting this!
I’ll be adding my clarification to this market as soon as possible. I need to do more investigation to decide which actions should count for resolving the market.
@mods market creator is not responding to multiple requests for clarification
I wanted to ask how long it needs to be ignored for, for this market to resolve YES
Does it count that Biden did this in 2024 with student loan debt?
Biden’s Student Loan Boast: The Supreme Court ‘Didn’t Stop Me’