Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
Plus
55
Ṁ8207Jan 1
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve YES if the junta loses control of 2 of the 3 largest cities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
According to this map (not sure what's the source behind), the opposition armed groups now control abut half of the country after the start of Operation 1027: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Myanmar_Civil_War_(2021-present)_after_Operation_1027.png
@adssx Certainly possible this will translate into loss of major cities, but well over 50% of the population is still governed by the Tatmadaw.
Related questions
Related questions
At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?
Which of the following scenarios do you think is most likely to unfold in Myanmar by the end of 2024?
What will The Economist Democracy Index of Myanmar be in 2024?
Will North Korea announce a formal regime succession plan by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will the government of the Central African Republic be overthrown before the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of the Central African Republic?
10% chance
Will there be a coup in Africa during 2024?
14% chance
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown before 2026?
59% chance
Will there be a change in leadership in Myanmar before 2025?
15% chance
Will internal armed conflict in Myanmar end before 2030?
71% chance