Will a judge throw out X vs. GARM?

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Dec 31

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X has filed a lawsuit against GARM, a worldwide coalition of advertisers, alleging an illegal boycott: https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4814323-elon-musk-x-lawsuit-advertisers/

Will a judge throw out the case?

Resolves YES if a reputable source reports that the lawsuit has been thrown out. Otherwise, resolves NO, including in cases of settlement out of court.

I will not bet in this market.

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#️ Technology

#Elon musk

#️ X (Twitter)

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8mo

Isn't GARM immediately getting dissolved a sign that the case has merit? Also does anyone have an opinion on what the base rate of such cases being thrown out is?

8mo

I'm not making this market to ask if the case has merit. I'm asking if it will get thrown out.

I'll try to get back to you on base rates later, I'm not sure

8mo

I was assuming that if the case has merit it's less likely to be thrown out

sold Ṁ8,095 NO8mo

GARM dissolved (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/08/technology/elon-musk-x-advertisers-boycott.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BU4.w6qC.a9xhblsV7AIp&smid=url-share). I bought a lot of NO shares, but then realized a judge might throw it out because of the dissolution, so quickly sold. Still unsure, though!

8mo

Garm is not the defendant, WFA is

8mo

To clarify, if the judge rules against X but doesn't dismiss the case before that, does this resolve NO?

8mo

That is correct. Market resolves YES if and only if judge dismisses case

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