Resolves YES if Congress passes a bill that eliminates a meaningful amount of Trump's tariffs. Removing tariffs from a single item/country would not necessarily be adequate to resolve YES (although perhaps in some situations where Trump pre-emptively removes most of the tariffs during debate of the bill and therefore when it takes effect it's more limited in nature). Must rein in Trump's tariff authority to some extent.

Does not matter if Trump vetoes the bill or refuses to obey it.

Must obviously pass both houses of Congress.

Must happen by end of June.

I will NOT bet in this market to remain objective over what constitutes Congress passing a "meaningful" bill toward this objective.

• Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Single-Country Removal

  • Single-Country Removal: A bill that removes tariffs from only one country (e.g., Canada) will resolve as NO.