Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025? (>1k deaths)
58
Ṁ3874
Dec 31
8%
chance

Resolves YES if the following criterion is met:

> 1000 deaths due to an India-Pakistan conflict within 2025, as per consensus media reporting and a median of the estimates of Wikipedia, the NYT, and the Guardian

I will not bet in this market, to remain as objective as possible.

#World
#️ Wars
#Geopolitics
#Global Macro
#🇮🇳 India
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arbitrage : https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w-qZOApZpQCU

bought Ṁ20 YES

Wikipedia is likely to pass this milestone. I can't speak to whether the others will report a grand total at the end of the year though.

Does it need to be officially declared as a war? Pakistan is already saying that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of war. If deaths result, would these count? Do the deaths need to be of soldiers or do civilians count too?

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