Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
Plus
36
Ṁ7377Jan 1
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Which LLM will be rank 1 at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
85% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
78% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
15% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
51% chance
Who will have the best Non-Tool Enabled LLM by the end of 2024 according to Chatbot arena?
Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024?
96% chance