Will American opinion of AI improve in 2025, according to Gallup?
Will American opinion of AI improve in 2025, according to Gallup?
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Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024. According to Gallup in 2024, 13% of Americans believe AI will "do more good than harm", an improvement of 3% over 2023.
This question resolves YES if Gallup polling for 2025 shows more Americans believe AI will do "more good than harm" than in 2024, i.e. 14% or higher. This question resolves NO if the results are the same (13%) or lower.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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