Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Carrie Poppy: Okay. So, also Rita Weigel at the New York Post was also interpreting Nostradamus for us. And Nostradamus told Rita Weigel that King Charles will be driven off the throne and replaced by Harry, not William.
Ross Blocher: Specific prediction. I like it.
(Carrie agrees.)
Let’s see how you do, interpreted Nostradamus.
Carrie Poppy: I love this prediction. It’s so specific, and it’s not how it’s supposed to go. So, it’s an actual swing. Love it.
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:
1,000
3.00@traders my resolution criteria for this market failed to account for the possibility that we wouldn't get ratings from Ross and Carrie, but with the podcast having ended that now seems pretty likely. Please vote in this poll to let me know if you'd prefer me to use my judgement instead, or just resolve this market N/A.
Either way, I have liquidated my previous position in this market and will make no further trades in it.
After browsing the transcript it seems 0 is a solid no and 2 is a solid yes, covering both points of the prediction.
Then 1 is a sort-of or partly-correct prediction. In our case this might be, Charles is “driven from” the throne and is replaced either by someone not-William but still in the succession list— or by someone surprising and not on the succession list, like Megan.