Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if SpaceX successfully lands a mission with human astronauts on Mars before the end of 2025, as confirmed by official SpaceX announcements or reputable news sources. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
1,000
3.00Mars transfer window is closed. Shortest travel time at optimum launch time is about 6 months.
With humans, you are certainly going to go for as short a duration transit time as possible.
If New Glenn was available, Escapade might launch soon but it wouldn't plan to arrive until ~September 2027 i.e. they have missed the last transfer window that closed ~November 2024, next opening ~December 2026..
There is no rocket in anywhere near ready state that could launch a mission within remaining 7.5 months let alone arrive and land on Mars. You would also want to have experience of landing successfully with somewhere near (or over) the mass that would be needed for a human mission before taking the risk of sending humans and this hasn't been done yet nor even have a planned date.
There are just so many reasons why this is not going to happen, IMO it might as well be resolved no now. @creator @d