How many celestial objects on a collision course with Earth will be discovered in 2025?
How many celestial objects on a collision course with Earth will be discovered in 2025?
Plus
6
Ṁ6582026
78%
1 or more
74%
2 or more
73%
3 or more
53%
5 or more
37%
8 or more
So far, 11 asteroids have been discovered before they impacted Earth, 4 of them in 2024:
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pi/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predicted_asteroid_impacts_on_Earth
This resolves to the number of such detections in 2025 (UTC); the impact can happen later. Anything coming from beyond Earth's sphere of influence counts (asteroids, comets, interstellar objects, old rocket stages returning from heliocentric orbit...). Groups of objects traveling closely together (e.g. binary asteroids) count only once.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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