Living meme

I created a multiple choice version of this to get mroe refined opinions, e.g. which tasks will be achieved. https://manifold.markets/LovkushAgarwal/possible-outcomes-of-the-bet-on-ai?

There is same market on metaculus. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31246/2027-ai-bet-winner-between-gary-marcus-and-miles-brundage/

For posterity, here was the original dialog when GM and MB were pinning down the wager on Twitter:

MB: In my new blog post, I share a starter pack for feeling the AGI: resources and arguments indicating that AI is virtually certain to exceed human performance in most areas in the next few years, and that the time to act is now.

GM: What odds will give you me on that Miles Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k? Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans? Can we put this on Metaculus?

MB: I don't feel comfortable with such large amounts of money for various reasons (namely it just feels obscene given all the good we can do with our $). But sure, I'll take those odds. Let's say: - $1k vs. $19k - List of benchmarks that you have previously articulated, minus physical stuff - I'm right if Epoch or METR AI says over 80% of your non-physical benchmarks were surpassed by end of 2027

GM: My list is a lot narrower than what you said above, you realize? But good man for mostly standing behind what you say, and I accept.

MB: Could you share the exact list?

GM: My two lists are in the two bets I offered Elon: 2022: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?utm_source=publication-search… 2024: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh… (bit high on robotics because Elon was emphasizing) My view is that you should not entirely discount the physical, because one thing ordinary people can learn to do very quickly is teleop robots, and another is to learn about their environment and quickly adapt to it. Happy to at least thin them though (e.g., drop the mountain bike example).

MB: Again, I want to focus on just non-physical stuff (I'm already being "generous" in the 95% odds + 80% threshold, and not quibbling about e.g. the 10k lines of code thing which as I noted years ago, is a superhuman bar, and the Nobel thing etc. are all quite high).

GM: Note. I will reply in morning after reading your blog, to decide a fair way to resolve/how strong your claim was, and take on board your comments here. Love this reasonable back and forth!

METACULUS: Just messaged / emailed each of you. Happy to support this bet with a forecast question.

I'm curious where the community will land on this one, so I subsidized a bunch!

Why did Miles agree to these odds?

@Usaar33 to be fair, he did say "almost certain," and I think people these days tend to think that's at least 90%. I'm not sure what the most credible data is on this but this is the oldest I know of is from a 1977 DoD report:

@Usaar33 Yeah I'm confused; feels like many people would bet at at least even odds against some of the stricter criteria like Nobel prize

@Usaar33 Costly signaling. https://x.com/metastable_1/status/1874478836370608424

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1873766399618785646

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

Apparently the bet has been booked at 10:1 odds (i.e. Miles's $20k to Gary's $2k)

The linked x whatchamacallit doesn't include the terms of the bet it refers to. Can you link the bit it is in reply to

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah, I can't figure out if they've actually made a bet. We can try to extract what the bet would've been even if they fail to pin it down.

PS, I've now extracted the dialog from Twitter. I think they may have fizzled out on pinning down a wager? PS, nope, they were super on top of it, just moved things to Substack.