What topics on Manifold will have at least 500 DAU at end of January 2025?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
10
แน€22k
Feb 1
26%
Politics
25%
US Politics
24%
Trump
19%
Republican Party
19%
Sports
18%
Trump's Second Term
17%
NFL
16%
2024 US Presidential Election
14%
AI
14%
Technology
13%
Crypto
13%
Elon Musk
10%
NBA
9%
๐Ÿฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture
9%
Economics
8%
Esports

I just created a new graph that shows daily active users by topic at https://manifold.markets/stats. It only shows topics with at least 50 active users. I will resolve YES any topic that has at least 500 DAUs in the last week of january.

I will not resolve YES to any tag that is a mispelling or otherwise basically the same tag as another, more popular tag in an attempt to manipulate this market. For example, someone creates a tag called 'Political markets' in the last week and attaches it to some markets that deliver it 500 DAUs. In that case the we'll just merge the tag with Politics.

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bought แน€100 NO

rip

@Bayesian ๐Ÿ˜ข

@Bayesian yeah January is looking optimistic now. Will be interesting to see what happens when we start up the normie/sweeps forward app

bought แน€100 NO

@ian oh yeah true

@traders I made the graph prettier

@traders does it change your trades now that i've set the resolution to be those topics still popular at the end of january?

bought แน€150 NO

sweet feature! love this!

i assume this is about the DAU on same day at end of January 2025? (or if it's "anytime before then", some can already resolve YES?)

@Ziddletwix Ah good question, I think it should be sth like: in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?

@ian That makes sense to me! Seems to match the spirit of the question

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