Will I drop out of Minerva University by 2027?
Will I drop out of Minerva University by 2027?
➕
Plus
32
Ṁ2334
2027
48%
chance

Here's who I am. My current expected graduation date is 05/01/2027.

Resolves "NO" if, as of 01/01/2027, I am still enrolled at Minerva University, graduated from Minerva University, transferred from Minerva University, or was kicked out of Minerva University.

Resolves "YES" if, prior to 01/01/2027, I drop out of Minerva University.

I am not allowed to bet on this market :(

Arsenii

#Personal
#Colleges & Universities
#Higher Education
#Education
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

does this resolve NO if you transfer?

1y

@saulmunn thanks Saul! Yes, it does :)

1y

Resolves "YES" if I go to community college or any other institution that doesn't give me a bachelors degree though

1y

@iatskar

Do you WANT to graduate from Minerva University? I mean, is it a genuine objective of yours?

1y

@suzumebatchi graduation for the sake of graduation isn't my objective. I'll drop out if it maximizes my long-term expected income value

bought Ṁ50 NO1y

@iatskar

Thanks for the info. Best of luck to you. I expect you will achieve success, however you define it.

1y

@suzumebatchi 🫶🏻

bought Ṁ10 NO1y

@iatskar Do you expect it to be very likely that you'll graduate?

1y

@Bayesian If that were very likely, I wouldn't have created a prediction market :)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules