Which answer will be the second most popular?
Which answer will be the second most popular?
Basic
5
Ṁ713000
21%
1
21%
2
24%
those belonging to the emperor
23%
Vriska did nothing wrong
32%
At close, I will resolve this in favor of the answer that has the second-highest percentage, splitting ties. For example, if the top few options are
12% A
12% B
11% C
11% D
then A and B will resolve 0% and C and D will resolve 50%.
I will set the closing time to one month in the future some time after I notice there are at least ten trades on this market.
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opened a Ṁ10 those belonging to t... YES at 24% order7mo
Updated resolution criteria to clarify ties.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00