Outside of its active user base, Manifold is mostly known for political betting, especially on United States politics. The next United States election day is on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Once these election results are decided, it is unclear what users who signed up for Manifold primarily for betting on these elections will choose to bet on, or if they will bet at all.

Resolution based on the monthly active user statistics at https://manifold.markets/stats. Resolves YES if the number of monthly active users given on that page for December 31st, 2024 is smaller than the number given for November 30th, 2024, and NO if the number of monthly active users for December 31st, 2024 given on the page is larger, or if the two numbers are equal.

It will resolve N/A if I am unable to access monthly user statistics for Manifold.