Will the president inaugurated differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP?
Basic
16
๐•Š2062
Jan 21
1.1%
chance

Resolves YES if the first person called by the Associated Press (AP) as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election is different from the first person inaugurated as the US President for the term starting January 20, 2025. Otherwise NO.

Some examples of scenarios that could potentially cause this result include, but are not limited to:

  • The call of the election winner is retracted / incorrect

  • The election winner dies, is incapacitated, or otherwise drops out

  • The election results are overturned in the states, courts, or Congress

  • Faithless electors change the results of the Electoral College

Details:

  • If there are e.g. technical glitches that result in AP erroneously posting a call that was not intended to be a call, this will not count as a call.

  • Otherwise, any call counts, even if immediately retracted.

  • Serving as Acting President is not the same as President and does not count as being inaugurated as President.

Notes:

  • Being inaugurated as President prior to the January 20, 2025 term has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

  • The definitions above allow for the "first person called" to be at any point after the election - e.g. if the electoral college is tied, then AP might not call the election until Congress votes on the President.

  • It also allows for the first person inaugurated to be after January 20, e.g. if no election victor has been chosen by that date.

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arb https://manifold.markets/DistinctlySkeptical/what-event-will-happen-first-trump-r157n7hx1q

Related market:

bought แน€50 NO

"Being inaugurated as President prior to the January 20, 2025 term has no bearing on the resolution of this market."

If I understand this correctly, this means that if AP were to call the race for Trump, and then Biden resigns and Harris becomes POTUS 47, then Trump is inaugurated on the 20th of January, this would resolve to NO, correct?

@Mana Exactly. The market is about "the first person inaugurated as the US President for the term starting January 20, 2025." and in that scenario that would be Trump, not Harris.

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