I'll roll a 1000 sided die once per day, if it lands on the number 1 I'll resolve YES
Market can't resolve NO
1,000
3.00@Bayesian oh I was thinking about this market a couple hours ago but figured I had more time. Probably I am bad at calculation
@FergusArgyll my theory: alyssa and dylan F bought yes without time discounting the value of the shares
@Bayesian right, time discount goes away if someone buys YES because you can't make money buying NO...
But I was wondering if the "each day" had a psychological effect on anyone or maybe something else.
@Bayesian I can't speak for Dylan F, but, in my case: correct. I've got enough mana stockpiled from the era of Particularly Huge Streak Rewards, relative to the amount of mana I have time to find good bets to make with in higher-yield markets nowadays, that the live alternative to bets like this is "mana sits unused and gives me no returns at all" rather than "mana gets used for other higher-value bets". (This wasn't the case before loans were restored; but it has been since then.)
@Tulip speaking of "interest rates are a function of the time you have to find them"—if anyone knows of markets resolving within 1-2 years that are 100% locks but are not at 99% due to interest rates, please link them for me! if something is actually presented to me and i don't have to take the time to search it out and find it, I would be happy to place mana for ~2 year risk-free ROI of ~1%