when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Plus
27
Ṁ18072029
10%
2025
18%
2026
24%
2027
30%
2028
54%
2029
Resolved
N/Alater
Resolved
NO2024
answers resolve no if year goes by without an announcement
once an announcement is made the current year and all future years resolve YES
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https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-a-financial-definition-of-agi-report/
Reportedly, Open AI needs to achieve $100 billion in profit before they can claim to have achieved AGI.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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