Will the US quit NATO by 2028?
Plus
17
Ṁ15902028
10%
if Trump gets elected 2024
4%
if a Republican other than Trump gets elected 2024
3%
no matter what
3%
if Germany meets NATOs 2% spending target in 2024
2%
if Biden gets elected 2024
Trump bawls he wants to quit NATO.
Each answer is a condition. If the condition is not fulfilled, I will resolve that answer NA. All others will resolve YES, when the US quits NATO, or NO, if the US is still a NATO member at the end of 2028.
The "no matter what" answer means unconditionally, so at the very least this one will not resolve NA.
In case the timing becomes relevant: "quit NATO" happens when it is formally done from US side. Announcement is not enough.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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