1.00Context: Donald Trump's Election Win Could Lead to Porn Being Banned
Will Trump (or his government) take actions to ban or restrict porn consumption in the US?
If I’m not able to view pornhub.com (or another leading porn site of the day, if PH goes down 😉) as an anonymous internet denizen with a US IP address nationwide, this Resolves YES.
Any actions taken by individual states here will not count.
An incomplete list of things that would count for a YES resolution (please suggest more in the comments):
Requiring IDs to view pornographic content.
Requiring business to get government confirmation/approval to show explicit content (a supply-side restriction).
Banning internet pornography
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 𝕊3.97 | |
| 2 | 𝕊3.88 | |
| 3 | 𝕊2.53 | |
| 4 | 𝕊1.17 | |
| 5 | 𝕊1.15 |
wrong market disregard
"Donald Trump's electoral win could lead to porn being banned in the United States, as it is a key agenda item in Project 2025."
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While it woud be a little crazy, it's not under 10% chance crazy. Louisiana has age verification laws, many European countries have some restrictions.
I'm pretty bullish on Trump implementing most of what's in Project 2025 compared to Manifold, but I have my doubts on this one for the following reasons:
- I doubt Trump is particularly committed to this issue.
- The Republican House majority is likely to be tiny (1-3 seats), meaning this is unlikely to pass Congress and would have to be implemented through executive action.
I suppose it's possible someone slips Trump an executive order doing this and he signs it, or maybe R House members are more unified than I think they will be, but seems unlikely overall.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00