If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale?
If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale?
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If ByteDance sells TikTok (using any type of corporate transaction), and it's addictive algorithm is included in the sale (not just the brand name), this market will resolve YES. If TikTok is sold but the algorithm isn't included, resolves NO. I'll use reputable media reports to help me resolve this market.
If TikTok is no longer required to be sold, either because the law was overturned on final appeal, or they decided to shut down the app in the U.S. instead, resolves N/A and traders get their mana back. Market close date will be extended if necessary.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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