Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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1,000
3.00Echoes of history:
Suleiman’s reign became marked by increasing piety and sobriety, as he sought to emphasize his position as guardian of the caliphate and leader of Orthodox Islam. An austere gloom fell on the court. Hurrem died and Suleiman retreated from the world. He was rarely seen in public and watched meetings of the divan—the council of state—silently from behind a grille. He drank only water and ate off clay plates. He smashed his musical instruments, forbade the sale of alcohol, and gave his energy to the building of mosques and charitable foundations. He was crippled by gout, and rumors of his failing health circulated across Europe. Year after year in the late 1550s and early 1560s, reports of his imminent death surfaced in the obsessively attentive courts of Europe: “The Turk is still alive but his death is imminent,” it was confidently reported in faraway England in 1562.
From:
Roger Crowley - Empires of the Sea_ The Siege of Malta, the Battle of Lepanto, and the Contest for the Center of the World-Random House Trade Paperbacks (2009)