Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

The question resolves Yes if, at any point during 2024, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed as the highest Arena Elo model on the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard.

If no non-proprietary model has reached the top rank by 2025, this question will resolve No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.