Will the Federal EV tax credit be repealed in 2025?
➕
Plus
10
Ṁ1440
2026
33%
chance

This question resolves Yes if, on December 31, 2025, it is no longer possible to purchase a new electric vehicle (EV) and receive a $7,500 federal tax credit or to purchase a used EV and to receive a $4,00 federal tax credit. If either of those credits is available to some buyers in the US on that date, this question resolves No. If the EV tax credits are substantially reformulated or there are serious ambiguities, I'll try to resolve them in the comments. If that discussion leads to no clear resolution, I'll resolve N/A.

  • Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the EV tax credit is continued by law through December 31, 2025 (and repealed thereafter), it will be considered available on December 31, 2025. In such a scenario, the market will resolve No.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
sold Ṁ113 YES

Provisions in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" seem to continue the EV tax credit through December 31, 2025; repealing it thereafter. If the bill becomes law as written, this market would end up resolving NO by the skin of its teeth.

sold Ṁ63 YES

Updating slightly downward because if the EV credit is repealed, there's a decent chance it won't take effect until January 2026 (the next tax year). Roughly half of the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credit changes took effect immediately, while the other half took effect in January 1 of the next year.

No new info as far as I can tell, but for reference: "Trump's transition team aims to kill Biden EV tax credit"

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules