US Congress

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Crystal
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?NO
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Crystal
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?
100%99.0%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
0.2%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
0.0%
D President, R Senate, R House
0.0%
D President, D Senate, R House
See 4 more answers
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Crystal
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?YES

This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.

  • Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.

  • Meanwhile the Republicans have a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.

Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics

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Premium
Can Democrats keep the Senate if they lose the presidency?
Resolved
N/A
If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
N/A
If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
Resolved
NO
If the Dem Nom loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
NO
If Dem Nom loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
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Premium
Ohio US Senate Race 2024: Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
100%98%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
2%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0.0%Other
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Plus
Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Ohio?
51%
Sherrod Brown
100%49%
Bernie Moreno
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
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Plus
What will be the margin in Ohio's Senate election?
0.5%
Greater than D+2.5
0.9%
D+0 to D+2.5
0.4%
R+0 to R+2.5
98%
R+2.5 to R+5
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AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
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Premium
Montana US Senate Race 2024: Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy
100%99.0%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party)
1.0%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party)
0.0%Other
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Plus
Will Jon Tester be reëlected?NO
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Basic
What will be the margin in Montana's Senate election?
100%91%
R+5 to R+7.5
0.6%
Greater than D+2.5
3%
D+0 to D+2.5
1.0%
R+0 to R+2.5
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Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
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Plus
Will three additional House Republicans resign in 2024?12% chance
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Plus
2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy]
Resolved
YES
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
Resolved
NO
AL-02 NEW SEAT
Resolved
YES
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
Resolved
YES
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%
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