Will Japan experience a large disaster during July 2025?
166
Ṁ50k
Aug 1
4%
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Ryo Tatsuki, a former manga artist known for her purportedly accurate disaster predictions, has forecasted a mega-tsunami to occur in July 2025. She describes visions of the sea south of Japan "boiling," which she interprets as signs of an underwater volcanic explosion leading to a tsunami three times larger than the one in 2011. This prediction has gained attention, though it lacks scientific substantiation.

The disaster may be natural or man-made. Examples that would count include passenger plane crashes, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc.

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The earthquake was supposed to happen today.

Can you tell us which months in the last few years had a disaster of a degree where, if it had happened in this month, this market would resolve yes?

I don't have a good sense for what level of disaster you would count.

Are we basically talking 3/11 or greater? Or would you count something smaller

@Tripping I feel like if it making front page news of a major U.S. publication is a pretty reasonable benchmark. . . . . maybe there should also be like some fatality number too, just because I could almost imagine the evacuating of a small island becoming front page news because of the Prediction.

@Tripping I would count the Noto earthquake, as it was featured on the front page of the NYT prominently

https://www.nytimes.com/issue/todayspaper/2024/01/02/todays-new-york-times

@nikki the problem with using "front page" as a metric is that what news makes the front page is heavily dependent on what else is news that day. On slow news days it's much easier for fairly minor 'disasters' to make it

25%

For reference:

  • 520 deaths, largest ever plane crash in Japan (JAL 123, 1985)

  • 22 312 dead and missing, 2011 earthquake and tsunami

bought Ṁ50 YES

The base rate of a disaster like this seems at least around 2%, though it’s difficult to quantify.

Are you the arbiter of what counts as large, or is Ryo Tatsuki, or someone else?

@Eliza If it makes front page news. Hopefully this market isn't debated too much

@nikki front page news where? In Japan or more globally?

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