Answers resolve yes when the individual in question takes on an official role in the new Trump administration before the end of his first hundred days. Roles do not need to be Senate-confirmed (Chief of Staff or Press Secretary counts), but roles that require Senate confirmation must actually be confirmed before they resolve.
NOTE, 11/7 9:44am: An "official role" must include being a formal employee of the United States government. "X is going to be my advisor on confronting the rhinoceros threat" does not count. "X is going to be Assistant to the Deputy Assistant Undersecretary of Agriculture but I am directing everyone in the Executive Branch to obey his instructions on all topics relating to rhinoceroses" does count.
1,000
3.00For the remaining two options:
Kari Lake should probably resolve YES because she has a official role and was sworn in (https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2025/03/03/kari-lake-special-adviser-united-states-agency-global-media/81200231007/)
Elon Musk should probably resolve NO because he never officially inhabited any role, he was just vaguely a special government employee
Anybody disagree?
@Agh I believe the only thing that was holding Kari up was being approved by the International Broadcasting Advisory Board. No idea if that's actually happened or not. I'm assuming it has
@HillaryClinton pls buy no I need liquidity (saw you had a 2% limit in another market)
Some of these can resolve!
Hegseth, Burgum, Bessent, Noem, and Rubio all resolve YES - they've been confirmed by the senate.
Miller has been picked as Dep. Chief of Staff. Homan has been picked as Border Czar. Leavitt is his press secretary. Brendan Carr is listed as his head of the FCC. David Sacks is currently his AI and Crypto czar. Kari Lake is currently the director of Voice of America. All of these are official positions, and should also resolve YES.
Elon Musk's actual status as a government employee isn't entirely clear.
@Marnix Resolved those who have been confirmed by the Senate or officially taken positions that do not require confirmation. Sacks resolves YES in his role as Chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. As far as I can tell, Homan does not have an official position yet and Kari Lake needs to be approved by the International Broadcasting Advisory Board.
@JeffBerman Czar is typically the nickname for someone who has an official post, so in that case yes. (for instance, the director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy is often called the Drug Czar)
@JeffBerman Follow up: a friend who knows more about the actual functioning, the federal government than I do informs me that occasionally a czar actually has no official position, but by appointing them the president essentially tells everyone in the executive branch that they have to listen to this person on that topic. I would NOT consider that a “yes” — in order to qualify for this market, the individual in question must have a specific official role within the US government.